This was presented by Karl Denninger on his BlogTalk Radio show and I present it to you.
But first, 3 main points to remember when tackling this little piece of truth:
First, know that the Consumer Spending Report is a report that “reports” to how well you and I are spending our disposable income.
Second, know that the moratorium on banks foreclosing on properties is coming to an end.
Lastly, know that a “non-performing” mortgage and the way it is report on bank financials can be redefined because and there fore changes the $ impact of the reporting QTR. A pre-crisis non-performing mortgage was delinquent in 30 -60 days. Not any more, it is delinquent whenever the bank feels like reporting it as non-performing.
Why the Consumer spending reports are a farce:
If the bank, by Presidential mandate, halts the foreclosure process, that puts the (would be) mortgage payment back in the pocket of the consumer. Since one out of 10 people (rounded up) don’t have a job, they are doing two things with that cash. They are either buying necessities or they are paying off debt.
Here is where the report starts fibbing. If you have a credit card with a $10K limit and your monthly unemployment check is ½ of your recent salary (or worse, your check has stopped coming), the credit card is now the breathing tube keeping said household alive.
The mortgage payment is used to pay off the life line credit card to sustain a standard of living. What would normally look like discretionary credit card spending is actually necessity spending and does nothing to GROW the economy.
Now the other side. If you were the bank (assuming the bank is the originator of both the mortgage and the credit card), would you rather foreclose on and write down a loss for said property or keep the occupant there and have them pay their 25% APR credit card every month? One is a performing line of unsecured credit and the other one is secured debt but is an instant loss if foreclosed and collected..
Decisions. Decisions.
Right now, the accounting rules say that the secured debt does not have to be recorded, so bank hold off. Hey, they are just following the rules. And you really don’t want to piss off the stock holders with that nasty little right down on the foreclosed property.
OK FINE, BUT WHAT IS THE POINT, you ask?
The whole point of this little thought experiment is to show that either way, a loss is a loss is a loss. More and more people are living off DEBT than creating value in the economy. Anytime debt rises in an economic environment, the assumption is that new more valuable goods and services will be created.
What the US is facing now is a formula for economic reversal: exponential growing amount of debt combined with crashing asset values. Take that and apply a future that does not promise an increased standard of living for several generations.
Ok, so what is the solution?
I will get back to you…in the mean time, try Atlas Shrugged by Ayn Rand as a little lite reading.